Budgeting & Variance Reporting
EnergyWatch’s Watchwire platform provides the ability to generate electric, steam, natural gas, and water budgets based off of historical invoice data, combined with various independent variables that may affect usage/demand for these commodities, such as weather variables (wet bulb temp, HDD/CDD, humidity, cloud cover, etc.), occupancy (square feet occupied, percentage, hourly full-time equivalents, rooms occupied, etc.), or any other variable that can be fed to our system to analyze.
Our algorithm analyzes billions of potential models, picks the best model based on relevant statistical thresholds (r2, adj. r2, p-values, f-value, etc.), then projects forward the monthly billing period consumption/demand for the applicable fiscal year. These numbers are then processed through our supply and delivery rate engines. Supply rates are projected based on existing supply contract rates/product structure (e.g. fixed, index, hybrid) through the contract end date, then projected forward based on forward market pricing integrated into our Watchwire platform. Delivery rates are projected based on actual tariff rates (where applicable and desired), or historical averages.
Variance reports provide an analysis of actual invoice data vs. budgeted numbers on a monthly basis. Since our algorithm forecasts based on a model incorporating weather, occupancy, and any other variables, we can derive the drivers of the variances on a monthly basis, explaining the impact of weather variables, occupancy, and delivery/supply rates.
Budgets can be reforecast based on actual to-date invoice data, reprocessing the forecast model with updated to-date information and projecting forward recalculated budget numbers.